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Survey of E-Commerce
Research
Inframarginal Versus Marginal
Analysis of Networking Decisions and e-Commerce
Yew-Kwang Ng
Department of Economics, Monash University,
Victoria, Australia 3800.
Email: Kwang.ng@buseco.monash.edu.au
For The International Symposium of e-Commerce
and Networking Decisions,
Monash University, 6-7 July 2001.
I. What is the Connection Between E-commerce
and Inframarginal Analysis of Networking Decisions?
Many participants of this International Symposium
of the Economics of e-Commerce and Networking Decisions may wonder
what is the economics of e-commerce and networking decisions. Having
had a look of the preliminary program of the symposium, you may wonder
what is inframarginal analysis and what is the relationship between
inframarginal analysis and e-commerce? Some of the participants may
think that this is a strange combination of two separate fields: very
business-oriented discussion on real e-commerce and very academic
economic analysis of networking decisions. Some may even think that
this is a tricky way to sell boring economics by bundling it with
the e-commerce stuff, which is interesting to many business economists.
This speech is devoted to address this concern and to provide motivation
for this symposium.
I know that many faculty members in business schools and in departments
of marketing, accounting, management, and other business-oriented
fields do not like, if not actually hate economics. Not only it is
claimed by many non-economics faculty members that economics is quite
irrelevant to real businesses and many businessmen can do very well
without it, but also departments of economics are losing students
and high profile faculty members to business schools. As myself an
economist, it is an overstatement to say that I am sympathetic to
this view. However, as social scientists, perhaps we should ask, do
they have some good reasons to feel this way? Is our economics missing
something important in the business world? My outline of inframarginal
analysis may throw some lights in answering this question. More ambitiously,
the incorporation of the inframarginal analysis of networking decisions
may make economics more relevant to the real world. (Even before this
extension, economic analysis has much relevancy and is very important
for practitioners in the business areas; see
Real business decisions can be categorized in two classes: marginal
decisions of resource allocation and inframarginal networking decisions.
Here inframarginal analysis is the total cost-benefit analysis across
corner solutions in addition to the marginal analysis of each corner
solution. If the optimum value of a decision variable takes on its
upper or lower bound (usually zero), the optimal decision is a corner
solution. Formally, it relates to nonlinear programming, mixed integer
programming, dynamic programming, the control theory, and other non-classical
mathematical programming. In many cases, the inframarginal networking
decision is much more important than the marginal decision. But since
the marginal revolution, economists have focused their attention on
the marginal analysis of resource allocation. The following example
illustrates why the inframarginal decision might be more important
than the marginal decision.
The first decision that a student has to make when she gets in the
university is to choose a major. If she chooses economics as her major,
then she does not go to classes of chemistry and physics, but she
takes classes of microeconomics, macroeconomics, and econometrics.
We call such a decision an inframarginal decision, since values of
decision variables discontinuously jump between zero and interior
values as the student shifts between majors. After she has chosen
a major, she allocates her limited time between the fields in this
major. This decision of resource allocation for a given major (or
occupation) is called marginal decision since standard marginal analysis
is applicable to this type of decision. The aggregate outcome of all
students' choices of their majors in a university generates division
of students among majors and fields, which is analogous to a structure
of division of labour in society.
The core of classical mainstream economics represented by William
Petty and Adam Smith was about the development implications of division
of labour. Although classical economists did not use the term of network
effects, Smith did appreciate the nature of network effects of benefits
of division of labour and specialization. He argued that the division
of labour is limited by the extent of the market. In terms of modern
economics, this Smith theorem implies that individuals' decisions
to choose their levels of specialization are determined by the benefits
of division of labour, which are dependent on the number of participants
in the network of division of labour (the extent of the market). Allyn
Young (1928) spelt this out in the Young theorem that not only is
the division of labour dependent upon the extent of the market, but
the extent of the market is also dependent on the level of division
of labour. This circular causation is a common feature of network
effects, just like the circular causation that the use value of a
telephone set is dependent on the number of telephone sets in use,
and also the number of telephone sets in use is dependent on the use
value of each telephone set.
But when Alfred Marshall formalized neoclassical economics within
a mathematical framework at the end of the 19th century, he assumed
the dichotomy between pure consumers' decisions and firms' decisions
to avoid the inframarginal analysis of corner solutions. Within the
neoclassical framework, each pure consumer buys all goods from the
market and does not choose her level of self-sufficiency or its reciprocal:
the level of specialization, which determines the size of her trade
network. Hence, the focus of economics shifted from the inframarginal
analysis of specialization and trade networking decisions to the marginal
analysis of resource allocation for a given network size. By following
this neoclassical framework, neoclassical development economics departs
from the then mainstream classical economics. Hence, the inframarginal
analysis of networking decisions lost the central position that it
occupied in the classical mainstream economics.
Since the 1950s, economists have applied inframarginal analysis to
various decision problems. However, many economists still follow Marshall's
assumption of dichotomy between pure consumers and firms, under which
the corner solution is exceptional and the interior solution is the
rule. Hence, the implications of formal inframarginal analysis of
networking decisions could not be fully explored until the late 1970s.
A literature of inframarginal analysis of impersonal networking decisions
emerged at the end of the 1970s and the 1980s. It has been rapidly
growing since the 1990s. This literature shows that if a Smithian
framework without the dichotomy between pure consumers and firms is
adopted, the interior solution is never optimal and a corner solution
is the rule rather than an exception. Hence, marginal analysis is
not enough and inframarginal analysis is essential for investigating
networking decisions.
This literature not only resurrects the spirit of the classical mainstream
economics in a modern body of inframarginal analysis, but also provides
a new framework for the study of networking decisions. Hence it creates
an opportunity to bring the study of networking decisions back to
the core of modern mainstream economics. As is well known, e-commerce
and the internet are characterized by networking decisions and network
effects. The new literature of inframarginal analysis of networking
decisions provides a powerful analytical instrument for the study
of economics of e-commerce and the internet.
II. Inframarginal Analysis Versus Marginal Analysis and Strategic
Versus Impersonal Networking Decisions
There are at least two types of reactions
from economists to many new e-commerce phenomena. One of them is represented
by Shapiro & Varian (1999). They have noted that, confronted by
the New Economy, many instinctively react by searching for a corresponding
New Economics to guide their business decisions. Executives charged
with rolling out cutting-edge software products or on-line versions
of their magazines are tempted to abandon the classic lessons of economics,
and rely instead on an ever-changing roster of trends, buzzwords,
and analogies that promise to guide strategy in the information age.
Not so fast, say Carl Shapiro and Hal Varian. In their book, they
warn managers, "Ignore basic economic principles at your own
risk. Technology changes. Economic laws do not." According to
this line of thinking, reinterpretation and application of marginal
analysis in information economics to e-commerce phenomena is all we
need. On the other hand, economists who contribute to the literature
of inframarginal analysis of networking decisions disagree. According
to them marginal analysis works only for problems of resource allocation
for a given pattern of network and it is not enough for the analysis
of networking decisions. Inframarginal analysis (total cost-benefit
analysis across network patterns in addition to marginal analysis
of resource allocation for a given pattern of network) is essential
for networking decisions. I am an eclectic. I believe that traditional
economics is still relevant for the new economy, but the power of
economic analysis can be tremendously increased by complementing traditional
economics with the inframarginal analysis of the network of division
of labour.
A most important difference between the traditional marginal analysis
of resource allocation and the inframarginal analysis of division
of labour and networking decisions is that the former takes the network
of economic organizations or the degree of division of labour of the
economy as given. For example, the discussion of the benefits of e-commerce
(e.g., Bakos 2001, Borenstein & Saloner 2001) focuses on the benefits
to consumers and producers due to the lower search costs and the likely
higher degree of competition. I am not aware of any discussion of
the lower transaction costs leading to a higher degree of division
of labour and the resulting economies of specialization. It may be
thought that we are already in a fully specialized economy with virtually
everyone having only one job or selling only one product. However,
even in our era of high specialization, there is still much scope
for increasing the degree of the division of labour. For one thing,
things done at home are still being increasingly replaced by those
done through the market, e.g. take-away food and dining out, specialized
carpet cleaning and gardening. Secondly, further specialization can
take place at the level of input usage by producers with the use of
more specialized inputs and more roundabout methods of production.
Thirdly, with lower market transaction costs, specialization between
firms may replace specialization within a firm. This is especially
characteristic of the small and medium-sized firms in Taiwan which
may specialize in producing a certain input or a particular process,
including the final assembly of a product. Thus, the development of
e-commerce made possible by the internet could lead to a much higher
degree of division of labour and provide benefits through the economies
of specialization. This benefit is better analyzed by inframarginal
analysis.
Let me use two examples to illustrate the usefulness of inframarginal
analysis of the network of division of labour. The first is a common
phenomenon in e-commerce: implicit bundling sale. An extensive literature
of marginal analysis of bundling and tying sale (Bursten 1960, Stigler
1963, Adams & Yellen 1976, Schmalensee 1984, McAfee, McMillan
& Whinston 1989, Whinston 1990, Hanson & Martin 1990, Varian,
1995, 1997, and Bakos & Brynjolfsson, 1999a, 1999b) has been developed.
This literature focuses on bundling and tying that is associated with
monopoly power. The following assumptions are made in this literature.
Each consumer consumes at most one unit of a good and has a constant
valuation of this one unit of good. Resale of a good is not allowed.
In addition, different prices cannot be directly charged for individuals
with different valuations because of un-observability of such valuations.
These assumptions imply that utility is not specified as a function
of amounts of all consumption goods and that no marginal substitution
between goods is allowed (so-called independent valuations). Hence,
interesting interactions and feedback loops between consumption quantities,
prices, income, production decisions, and substitution between goods,
which are the focus of a standard general equilibrium analysis, are
not investigated in this literature. With the quite special assumptions,
it is easy to see that bundling can impose indirect price discrimination
under a uniform price of a bundle of goods even if no monopoly power
exists. Bakos and Brynjolfsson (1999a, b) have nicely presented the
intuition about this function of bundling.
As reviewers of some papers in the literature point out, many internet
and e-commerce phenomena are inconsistent with the particular assumptions
made in this literature. For instance, there are more than a thousand
of email or search engine providers and each of them bundles their
services. Some of the services are charged positive prices and others
are provided free of charge. Also, resale of such services is possible,
quantities of such services can be any integer numbers (for instance
each person may get several email accounts from each of several providers),
and substitution between services are not trivial (that is, a consumer's
valuation of a service is not a constant, or a consumer's utility
is a function of quantities of such services and other goods).
Bakos and Brynjolfsson, (1999b, p. 3) defend their position by arguing
that bundling sale with zero prices of some services is a phenomenon
of disequilibrium. I disagree. A good of zero price implicitly bundled
with goods of positive prices can be a general equilibrium phenomenon.
A conventional market for petrol and air pump services may illustrate
the point. There are many petrol stations which sell petrol at a competitive
price and provide air pump services free of charge. This market structure
has been in place for a long time. The bundling of petrol and air
pump services must be a general equilibrium phenomenon. In this market,
all consumers' preferences for petrol and air pump service might be
very similar, so that the rationale for the type of bundling in the
existing literature is irrelevant. The intuition for this phenomenon
is quite straightforward. Pricing of air pump services and collection
of related payment involves transaction cost to consumers as well
as to petrol stations (waiting time, inconvenience, and tangible resource
cost for pricing and payment collection). If the production cost of
such services can be added to the price of petrol which is complementary
to air pump services, then such transaction cost can be avoided. Bundling
sale may incur endogenous transaction costs which are the distortions
caused by individuals who use air pump services but do not buy petrol
from the same petrol station. But as long as reduction of exogenous
transaction costs of pricing process of air pump services outweighs
the increase in endogenous transaction cost, a competitive market
will generate pressure to compel all petrol stations to implement
such a bundling price structure. We call this phenomenon implicit
bundling. Implicit bundling is closer to mixed bundling than pure
bundling investigated in the existing literature. Other implicit bundling
cases include TV programs (TV shows are free of charge and associated
advertisements are paid at positive prices by companies selling goods
to viewers of TV programs) and an automobile company's marketing operation
with positive prices of cars and free internet purchase services.
(Suspect significant difference, the TV case is more the case of a
marketing good.) Here, the key point is that competition pressure
and prohibitively high pricing cost of some goods are essential for
zero prices of goods bundled with goods of positive prices. Therefore,
we need a model without monopoly power and with transaction costs
and competitive (implicit) bundling. Using the Yang-Ng's (1993) framework
of inframarginal analysis, Li (2001) has formalized this story.
He tells the story by formulating the trade-off between positive network
effects of division of labour on aggregate productivity and transaction
costs. As suggested by Allyn Young (1928), network effect is a notion
of general equilibrium. Not only the network size of division of labour
depends on the extent of the market (the number of participants in
the network of division of labour), but also the number of participants
is determined by all individuals' participation decisions in the network
of division of labour, which relate to their decisions of their levels
of specialization. This circular causation, noted by Young, is of
course an essential feature of general equilibrium, analogous to the
circular causation between quantities and prices in the general equilibrium
(each individual's quantities demanded and supplied depend on prices,
while the equilibrium prices are determined by all individuals' decisions
of quantities). Hence, marginal analysis of a partial equilibrium
model, such as those in the existing literature of bundling, does
not work for our task.
Moreover, since we need an assumption of competitive market for investigating
network effects of division of labour, we are not confined to the
strategic networking decision associated with monopoly power. We need
a general equilibrium model of impersonal networking decisions to
investigate infinite feedback loops between network size of division
of labour, each person's participation decision, prices, quantities,
and different markets. Yang (2001) and Sun, Yang, and Yao (1999) have
drawn the distinction between the strategic networking decision and
the impersonal networking decision. For the latter, each decision
maker is not concerned with whom she has a trade connection to. She
is concerned with how many goods she will trade and how many she will
self-provide. Her decision in choosing the number of types of traded
partners determines her trade network size and pattern. Impersonal
networking decisions take place in a market where no body can manipulate
prices, so that implicit bundling with zero prices of some goods may
emerge from competitive pressure and free entry. Such impersonal networking
decisions generate network effects of division of labour that are
not network externalities since we assume that each individual is
capable of conducting inframarginal analysis (total cost-benefit analysis
across corner solutions) in addition to marginal analysis of each
corner solution. Inframarginal analysis means that each individual
is capable of not only choosing locally optimal resource allocation
for a given trade network pattern using standard marginal analysis,
but also choosing a globally optimal trade network pattern by comparing
several locally optimal values. Formally, inframarginal analysis is
non-linear programming. Coase (1946, 1960), Buchanan and Stubblebine
(1962), and Yang (2001) have shown that a lot of so-called network
externalities can be internalized by individuals' inframarginal decisions.
They are considered externalities by many economists since these economists
effectively assume that individuals are incapable of doing inframarginal
analysis and/or do not make the relevant inframarginal choices/changes.
Many contributors to the literature of inframarginal analysis of network
effects of division of labour and impersonal networking decisions
(see surveys of this literature by Yang and S. Ng, 1998 and by Yang,
2001, and references therein) have shown that marginal cost pricing
does not work when individuals conduct inframarginal analysis. Hence,
non-marginal cost pricing is compatible with a competitive market
with localized increasing returns and impersonal networking decisions.
Intuitively, Li's story can be told as follows. Suppose that an automobile
manufacturer, such as General Motor, sells automobiles and internet
services for purchasing cars online. Automobiles are tangible goods
which are easy to price, but internet services are intangible, very
difficult to price. General Motor can bundle two goods together by
providing free internet services and by adding the operation cost
of internet services to the price of automobiles. If such bundling
can save consumers' transaction costs incurred in a purchase deal
in excess of the added cost to the price of automobiles, General Motor
will have a competitive edge compared to other automobile manufacturers
who do not provide such bundled deal. Then a competitive pressure
in the market will force all manufacturers to provide such bundled
deal. Here, monopoly power, constant and independent valuations of
one unit of good, non-resale, and other peculiar assumptions are not
needed. In addition, even if all individuals have ex ante identical
utility function which allows substitution between goods, productivity
gains from bundling may be generated by network effects of division
of labour. Without bundling, involvement of the good with prohibitively
high transaction cost coefficient in a high level of division of labour
and avoidance of direct pricing cost of such a good cannot coexist.
Hence, positive network effects of division of labour on aggregate
productivity cannot be fully exploited. With the bundling, both of
the tasks can be achieved at the same time. Therefore, the network
effects can be fully exploited and aggregate productivity can be promoted
by the bundling. It is interesting to see that bundling in a competitive
market has very important productivity implications even if all individuals
have ex ante identical utility and production functions and substitution
between different goods are non-trivial.
The inframarginal analysis of impersonal networking decision can also
be extended to explain the unusually high P/E ratio of many e-commerce
companies. If positive network effects of e-commerce can be created
by founding of many e-commerce companies, but services provided by
these companies are not easy to directly price, then the merger of
e-commerce companies and other companies which sell tangible goods
can indirectly price intangible e-commerce services via implicit bundling
in e-commerce. The story about bundling between automobiles and internet
purchase services is an example. Other examples include the merger
of the AOL and Warner Brothers, which bundles intangible services
of the AOL with tangible goods provided by Warner Brothers, and Amazon.com
which bundles intangible e-commerce with tangible hard copies of books.
Hence, some e-commerce companies can have unusually high P/E ratio
since the market expects that such companies may be merged or bought
by other companies selling tangible goods at quite high share prices
if they really create significant network effects of division of labour.
This phenomenon is difficult to explain using marginal analysis in
the existing literature of bundling and tying sale.
Another e-commerce phenomenon that cannot be predicted by neoclassical
marginal analysis is that the risk of coordination failure of network
of division of labour and income share of transaction costs increase
as the new technology of internet significantly improves the reliability
of each transaction and reduces the cost of each transaction. This
phenomenon is noted by Autor (2001) and Barber and Odean (2001). But
they cannot find an appropriate analytical instrument to explain it.
As Shapiro and Varian (1999) suggest, they rely on an ever-changing
roster of trends, buzzwords, and analogies to verbally describe such
a phenomenon. However, Shapiro and Varian's marginal analysis cannot
help them either. As shown by Yang and Ng (1993) and Yang (2001),
marginal analysis even does not work for explaining many impersonal
networking decisions in conventional market and cannot formalize classical
mainstream economics, which focused on network effects of division
of labour. The marginal analysis is even less suitable for handling
e-commerce phenomena. Hence, our conference focuses on theories and
applications of inframarginal analysis of impersonal networking decisions.
This distinguishes our symposium from the Symposium of E-Commerce
at the USA (see Borensten and Saloner, 2001, Goolsbee, 2001, Autor,
2001, Barber and Odean, 2001, and Bakos, 2001). That symposium is
characterized by verbal description and marginal analysis of partial
equilibrium. Lio (1998) and Yang and Wills (1990) have developed several
models of impersonal networking decisions. Inframarginal analysis
in these models predicts the above e-commerce phenomenon. Their models
specify the trade-offs among positive network effects of division
of labour on aggregate productivity, coordination reliability of the
network of division of labour, exogenous transaction costs in specifying
property rights, and endogenous transaction costs caused by imprecise
specification and enforcement of property rights. As a communication
or transaction cost coefficient is reduced by new internet technology,
the scope for trading off economies of division of labour against
transaction costs is enlarged, so that the equilibrium network size
of division of labour increases. However, this expansion of network
of interdependent specialists will increase the length of a series
connection of many professional occupations. If there is a transaction
risk for each trade connection, the aggregate risk of coordination
failure of the trade network will increase exponentially with the
number of connections. Thus, the aggregate risk of coordination failure
may increase as a result of a decrease in the risk of coordination
failure of each trade connection. However, as long as positive network
effects of division of labour outweigh negative network effects of
increasing risk of coordination failure, the network size of division
of labour and aggregate risk of coordination failure may increase
side by side. Also, the income share of transaction costs may increase
as a result of the expansion of network of division of labour, driven
by improvements in communication efficiency. Many other e-commerce
phenomena can be much better explained by inframarginal analysis than
by marginal analysis.
More generally, all information about inframarginal decisions (or
about whether any pair of players are connected) is associated with
so-called "topological properties of an organism," which
can be represented by a graph consisting of vertices (or nodes, points)
and edges (or lines, curves). All information about marginal decisions
of resource allocation relates to quantities of goods which is a non-topological
property of an organism and can be represented by weights attached
to edges of the graph. Hence, a weighted digraph can describe the
topological as well as non-topological properties of an economic organism.
Marginal analysis focuses on the non-topological properties of economic
organisms, while inframarginal analysis focuses on the topological
properties of economic organisms. The networking decision, which is
essential for e-commerce, is an inframarginal decision.
Hence, it will be an exciting experience to learn inframarginal analysis
from many sessions in this conference. Many papers presented in this
conference will show you that the implications of the inframarginal
revolution for the studies of e-commerce and beyond.
Borenstein & Saloner (2001, p.6) may be right that the "key
impediments to capturing the cost savings of e-commerce and the Internet
will probably not involve technical issues, but rather inertial forces".
Similarly, it is inertia that allows academic journals to continue
requiring the costly submissions of many single-sided, double-spaced
hard copies of papers for publication rather than allowing electronic
submissions (Ng 2001). So, wake up and do something!
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Some Articles about Inframarginal Economics
and E-Commerce:
- Ke Li & Xiaokai Yang, A
General Equilibrium Model with Impersonal Networking Decisions and
Bundling Sales. (Application Theory, E-commerce)
- Dingsheng Zhang, He-Ling Shi & Xiaokai Yang, "A
General Equilibrium Model of e-Commerce with Impersonal Networking
Decisions".
- Chu, Chih-Ning & Chou, Jerome, "A
Criterion from the General Equilibrium Model on Providing an Open
or a Closed Source Software".
- Heling Shi & Hayden Mathysen, "E-commerce,
transaction cost, and the network of division of labour: a business
perspective".
Inframarginal
Economics Society
www.inframarginal.com
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